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Name Them & Shame Them
- ISB and Football Predictor
For members of the Fixed Odds Forum I will present a review of two
betting subscription services who have claimed to generate profits for their subscribers, Informed Soccer Betting (http://www.informedsoccerbetting.com
) and Football Predictor (http://www.footballpredictor.i12.com).
1. Are ISB telling the truth about their betting record?
ISB have finally revealed on their web site their Betting History for the 1999/2000 season. Interestingly, since its major web site
update in February, presumably to develop its subscription service, it has failed to increase its early season gains. More interestingly,
some of the quoted odds and stakes do not seem to correlate with
those actually e-mailed to customers. The suspicious period in question is from 3rd January to 22nd January, reproduced below for
all those sceptics out there. The lines below "E-mail" show what was sent by ISB. The lines below "ISB on-line statistics" show
what is on their web site.
03/01/2000
E-mail
3 bets @ £200 each: 10/1, 14/1, 16/1
Total stakes £600
Loss: £600
ISB on-line statistics
No bets shown
08/01/2000
E-mail
2 bets @ £200 each: 17/1, 23/1
Total stakes £400
Loss: £400
ISB on-line statistics
1 bet @ £200: 12/1
Loss £200
15/01/2000
E-mail
2 bets @ £200 each: 16/1, 26/1
Total stakes £400
Loss: £400
ISB on-line statistics
1 bet @ £200: 22/1
Loss £200
22/01/2000
E-mail
3 bets: 5/1 (£500), 17/1 (£200), 33/1 (£200)
Total stakes £900
Loss: £400, Win: £2500, Profit: (£2100)
ISB on-line statistics
1 bet @ £200: 17/1
Loss £200
What is rather predictable is the failure to reveal all losses on the 3rd, 8th and 15th January. But was is most peculiar is the omission
on the web site of the winning 5/1 maximum treble bet @ £500 on the 22nd. However, in general, this lack of correlation between
different information should not inspire prospective customers of ISB with confidence.
Furthermore, ISB continue to claim an 84% success rate at match prediction. For the betting period described above, match prediction
success rate was 33% and 10% for treble bets, which incidently returned a profit during the period. It puzzles me somewhat that ISB
continue to claim such staggeringly high success at forecasting
match outcomes whilst the results fail to support this.
Last weekend, ISB removed their message board, claiming that it was being used too regularly to defame its services. I have asked
ISB to comment on this and the inconsistencies described above, but as yet have received no reply. Perhaps ISB would like to set the
record straight here. We will watch this space. My advice would be to steer clear of ISB, given their expensive rates, until they can
demonstrate openly their worth.
2. Football Predictor - another fake?
In contrast to ISB, Football Predictor offer a relatively low cost betting subscription service for prospective punters. Football
Predictor claim on their web site to generate a minimum of 90% profit per season on initial stakes. In other words, if a total of 1000
units were bet, 1900 would be an expected return during a full season. I tested their service during the middle part of the
1999/2000 season and have the following statistics to report:
Between the 13th November 1999 and the 5th of February 2000 (about one third of a season), a total of 216 units were staked,
yielding a loss of 63 units (or -29%, excluding tax). Given typical bookmakers' over-rounds (their expected profit margin), Football
Predictor have performed no better than a strategy of random match
selection. Of course, for a more reliable analysis of profit yield, one would need to study a full season. However, Football Predictor have
not been forthcoming in responding to my requests to review their previous season's betting histories. To their credit, Football
Predictor do refund subscriptions on request, if losses have been
incurred. However, as for ISB, my advice would be to avoid this betting strategist unless they reveal evidence of their profit margins.
For readers with an interest in seeing the betting data for ISB and Football Predictor, I have compiled it in Excel 97. Whilst ISB and
Football Predictor persist with a culture of secrecy, I am prepared to share the data. E-mail me at
joebuchdahl@totalise.co.uk
.
Joe
http://www.foi2000.free-online.co.uk/
webmaster@foi2000.free-online.co.uk
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